July 11, 2012 – In 1999, when the Australian pay TV industry was less than four years old, Foxtel chief executive Tom Mockridge made a prediction: a big, bold and – as it turned out – wildly incorrect prediction. Within 10 years, he said, pay TV would be installed in three quarters of Australian homes.
Yet by 2009 only 29 per cent of Australian homes had pay TV. Today, according to stockbroking firm CCZ Statton Equities, it’s currently at 28 per cent – one of the lowest rates in the developed world.
Mockbridge’s over-optimism hasn’t stopped Richard Freudenstein, who replaced Kim Williams as chief executive last year, from publicising his own lofty goals for the industry. In March, he announced an ambition to lift the take-up of pay TV to 50 per cent (though he didn’t apply a deadline to the target).
None of the media analysts contacted by Crikey for this story believe this will happen – ever. They say despite News Limited’s bid to lift its stake in Foxtel from 25 to 50 per cent, the take-up of traditional pay TV has already peaked – and will soon start to decline.
“There is no indication whatsoever that pay TV in its current form will grow to 50 per cent,” said veteran telecommunications consultant Paul Budde. “No way.”